The Greenhouse Effect -- Reality or Hoax?
The Greenhouse effect is currently a matter of worldwide public concern. The fact that people everywhere are now vitally concerned with matters such as this is a very desirable thing. But I will attempt to show that our knowledge of this matter is limited, our understanding is very small, our proposals are timid and restrained, and our concern is misplaced. The current near-panic has all the hallmarks of a ‘manufactured’ crisis.
Proposition 17A
Concern over the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ is misplaced, and represents a ‘manufactured’ crisis
What are the facts behind the Greenhouse Effect? The main feature is that the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has increased over the last two hundred years or so, almost certainly as a result of industrial and agricultural activities, and appears to be increasing still. In fact, it appears to be as high now as it has ever been in the last 100,000 years or so. More recently the concentrations of the natural gases methane and nitrous oxide, and of manufactured gases called chlorofluorocarbons, have also increased. That is pretty well the extent of the facts.
The carbon dioxide data is mostly derived from studies of the composition of air bubbles trapped in glaciers of different ages, and I would not argue with these results. It is the conclusions and deductions made from the data which should be questioned.
Some dire predictions have certainly been made about the effects of the Effect. Foremost among these is that the increasing level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will trap more of the Earth’s heat (whether generated here or received from the Sun), causing world-wide increases in temperature. This will lead to partial melting of the polar icecaps, and hence increases in sealevels and flooding of coastal areas. Widespread changes in weather patterns have also been predicted, sometimes with increased frequency of storms.
Proposed actions to counteract these predicted bad effects have ranged from the sensible down to the trivial and ludicrous. Sensible ones have included the widespread planting of more trees, to tie up more of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — we have seen that that is a good idea anyway, from both environmental and economic viewpoints.
Trivial recommendations I have seen in print include such gems as “switch off lights when not in use”. Perhaps the most ludicrous one, stemming from the W.A. Greenhouse ’88 Conference supported by our State Government, was to “Identity and proscribe Greenhouse activities in light of existing laws”. Such an action, if carried through literally, would mean the immediate end of all life on Earth.
[For the full item containing the above, go to http://www.aoi.com.au/matrix/Nuteeriat-P162-181.pdf. The original item was published in 1989 in my book "Nuteeriat".
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Last update 2006 Feb 6
